- Bitcoin’s current inactive price action is typical for the August-September months.
- Analysts say BTC is a BUY in late September, before the possible Q4 breakout.
- The flagship crypto arrived at a crucial support confluence. Can it hold the ground?
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC) repeats the same patterns that preceded bull runs in 2017 and 2019-2020, indicating a massive price rally ahead.
Bullish Bitcoin Fractal Explained
Historically, August and September have proven to be the most “destructive” months for Bitcoin, especially in pre-halving years.
For instance, in the August-September session of 2015, the BTC price witnessed a 25% correction toward its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). However, it didn’t close beneath the wave support. The coin declined similarly in the August-September session of 2019, falling 35%.
Chartered market technician Adrian Zduńczyk noted that the average loss in September was 6.45%. However, the market recovered in the months afterward, closing the October-December period with a 50.84% profit.
“Long-term buys are best in 2nd half of September,” concluded the expert.
Zduńczyk also asserted that Bitcoin’s current “doing-nothing” price action is driven by market fear, which some traders could shift to their advantage.
Behavioral biases (loss aversion, regret bias, anchoring, heuristics) gain in strength as the range develops. Longer range => explosive breakout. The more extreme the fear, the better the buying opportunity for contrarians.
said Zduńczyk in a recent thread.
Michael Van de Poppe, the founder/CEO of MN Trading, agreed with Zduńczyk’s outlook, adding that Bitcoin’s 2015 pre-halving downtrend is the most similar to 2023. He noted that the correlation is based on heightened institutional investor influx, thus ruling out a potential bull run in Q4.
Traders should keep an eye on the 200-week EMA and $25K level
However, the 200-week EMA remains crucial, along with the $25,000 line. As of Sep 8, the flagship crypto retested the confluence of support from both lines.
The bullish continuation is unlikely to come immediately, given a slew of bearish macro factors. However, if BTC/USD holds the current support levels, it could conclude the correction with a sideways consolidation instead of another drop. Then, concluded Van de Poppe, the bullish push appears more likely.
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