LUCKNOW (CoinChapter.com) — For years, many crypto experts have boldly predicted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $100,000 in the future.
For instance, in 2022, investment banking giant Standard Chartered boldly forecasted that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of 2024. The firm cited the upcoming halving and increased institutional adoption as key drivers.
Around the same time, “Rich Dad, Poor Dad “author Robert Kiyosaki doubled down on his call for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by June 2024.
While these lofty targets were easy to brush off as hopium a few years ago, a wealth of on-chain data now reinforces the possibility. Some of the key metrics suggest that $100,000 is within reach.
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Declining Sell Pressure from Long-Term Holders
One of the biggest bullish signals is the declining sell pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. Metrics like the “Supply Last Active 1y+” show that over 65% of the Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for at least a year. For coins unmoved for 2+ years, that figure is nearly 55%.
This indicates that long-term holders have been hodling tight rather than taking profits, suggesting they expect even higher prices in the future. Less selling means less downward pressure on prices.
Positive Capital Inflows into Bitcoin Despite Slowdown
While the rate of new capital flowing into Bitcoin has slowed from its peak, inflows remain positive overall. At its height, over $3 billion per day was entering the Bitcoin market, outpacing the 2021 bull cycle.
Even modest continued inflows paired with reduced sell pressure create the perfect recipe for price appreciation. The Bitcoin “Realized Cap,” reflecting total market capitalization, now stands at a staggering $574 billion.
Volatility Compression Signals Potential Breakout
Bitcoin’s volatility is also at multi-year lows when measured by the percentage price range over 60 days. Such prolonged periods of volatility compression have historically preceded explosive price moves.
With the spell of low volatility seemingly unbroken, Bitcoin could be coiling for its next major bull run toward $100,000 and beyond.
Robust Price Floor, Minimal Resistance
Further boosting Bitcoin’s $100,000 prospects is the sheer amount of buying support located just below the current price levels. Glassnode’s URPD metric shows nearly 16% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was accumulated at cost bases within a few thousand dollars of the current spot price.
In contrast, a mere 1.1% of supply is being held at higher cost bases, implying little resistance to higher price levels. This supply imbalance strongly favors bitcoin’s price discovery heading higher.
Short-Term Holders Decently Positioned to Send Bitcoin to $100K
Even the shorter-term speculative holders appear positioned for more upside.
While over 2.14 million BTC fell into an unrealized loss for short-term holders during the recent correction, representing 63.2% of the total 3.36 million BTC STH supply, this figure has now decreased dramatically to just 230,000 BTC in unrealized loss as the market rallied back above $70,000. This equates to only 6.8% of the total STH supply being underwater at current prices.
This suggests that despite the heavy concentration of coins held by STHs around the current spot price, relatively few of them are held at an unrealized gain. This considerably reduces the risk of any major top-heaviness developing, where too many holders are incentivized to sell and cash out.
With such a small portion of the STH supply in an unrealized loss position, the upside path remains clear for Bitcoin’s continued ascent toward the $100k level and beyond.
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