- Bitcoin stares at another boring week ahead, with prices rangebound.
- All eyes will be on the US inflation print on Sep. 13.
- FTX shareholders will likely receive their frozen $3.1 billion worth of cryptocurrencies.
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — As anticipated, Bitcoin (BTC) underwent another boring week in a market searching for fundamental clues beyond exchange-traded funds and the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.
A Little Bitcoin Market Rant
Notably, the BTC price has stabilized inside the $25,750-26,450 range. The token’s seven-day average volumes and volatility are the lowest in months. Simply put, most investors have become wary about investing; only short-term traders appear involved as they buy the local low and sell the local top.
A key contributor to the cautious Bitcoin price trend has likely been US Treasuries.
For instance, the benchmark 10-year note yield rose 2.08% last week, bringing returns closer to the August high. So, if an investor has a buck to invest, his/her likelihood of choosing a high-yielding US bond over a non-yielding Bitcoin is high.
Event Risks This Week: US Inflation and FTX’s $3.1B Crypto Dump
Bitcoin investors wait for a key market-moving event this week: the consumer price index (CPI) report on Sep. 13.
The Federal Reserve may receive mixed US inflation data, with markets anticipating core CPI to weaken to 4.3% y/y in August from 4.7% a month prior and headline inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.5% due to a recent rise in oil prices.
A seesaw inflation report raises the Fed’s possibility of pausing its rate hike plans in the next FOMC meeting on Sep. 19-20. That aligns with the CME’s futures rate probabilities — with a 93% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged in the current 525-550 basis-points (bps) range.
Bitcoin investors will also look for directional clues in the ongoing FTX courtroom drama. Notably, on Sep. 13, a federal court may grant the defunct exchange the right to unfreeze $3.1 billion worth of crypto reserves. Many believe that the FTX shareholders will dump the unlocked tokens, triggering a broader selloff in the crypto market.
Going to be a wild week
1) U.S. military “exercises” in the Black Sea (Sep 11-15)
2) CPI data (Sep 13)
3) FTX seized crypto liquidation (Sep 13)
4) Quadruple Witching OpEx (Sep 15)
5) Corporate taxes due (Sep 15)
6) Completion of the 2020 repeat pattern
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 11, 2023
But some hope a massive selloff won’t be the case. For instance, Lark Davis, an independent market analyst, argues that FTX shareholders would rather use opaque over-the-counter (OTC) desks to unload their tokens.
Furthermore, he added that FTX’s stash has little Bitcoin and Ethereum tokens. Therefore, the selling pressure may turn out to be minimal, leaving market sentiment unscathed.
“The FUD around this is worse than the actual event itself.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis for the Week
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin will likely fluctuate inside its prevailing $25,750-26,450 range this week while maintaining its overall bearish bias.
One of the primary reasons is the BTC price forming a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern. The price has entered the pattern’s semifinal stage by painting the right shoulder and now eyes a breakdown below the neckline level of around $25,750.
Suppose a breakdown happens. Then, the Bitcoin price risks falling to around $23,600 in September, down 8.5% from current price levels. Conversely, a bounce from the $25,750-neckline may have the BTC price eye its 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave) near $26,200 as the next upside target.
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