Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin kickstarts the weekly session with a modest rally.
  • Most analysts view the rally as a result of Grayscale’s win against the SEC.
  • Nonetheless, the Israel-Hamas conflict appears to be the primary driving force.
Bitcoin Week Ahead Ep34: Just Avoid Spot BTC ETF BS For Now

YEREVAN ( — Bitcoin (BTC) is “digital gold,” according to many fanbois on Twitter (Erm, X, sorry). But the top cryptocurrency failed to act like a safe haven amid the horrific geopolitical developments in Israel and Palestine last week.

Yes, BTC’s price dropped 2.72% in the week ending Oct. 15. Mainstream investors and retail cowboys didn’t consider it a digital gold against the raging Middle Eastern conflict. Instead, these “boomers” picked gold, the all-time favorite safe haven papa, which jumped 5.48% to deliver its best weekly performance since March 2023’s banking crisis.

A round of applause for Peter Schiff. Because the popular analyst’s prediction about gold outperforming Bitcoin came true (so what if it’s only for a week).

Bitcoin vs. gold 2023 price comparison
BTC/USD versus XAU/USD year-to-date price performance. Source: TradingView

SEC Boosts Grayscale Bitcoin ETF Narrative — Fake, Though!

Bitcoin bulls are finally waking up after last week’s defeat versus gold.

The BTC price kickstarted the seven-day session with a 3% intraday pump, hitting over $27,950. But gold dropped 1.25%.

BTC price tracked by
BTC/USD 24-hour price action. Source: CoinStats

Crypto Twitter (DUH! X) wants one to believe that BTC’s pump has appeared in response to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to avoid challenging Grayscale Investment’s win.

Notably, the US regulator will let the firm apply to convert its existing Bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The decision came on Friday, the 13th. Bitcoin didn’t rally much then or even a day after. But somehow, crypto bulls thought to accumulate some BTC tokens on Sunday and Monday because of Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF news.

But most crypto pundits ignore the prospects of the Israel-Hamas conflict and its impact on the broader market.

The US and its allies have started their attempts to contain the war. Anthony Blinken is back in Tel Aviv to ensure the conflict does not become an internationally recognized genocide of Palestinians. Joe ‘Sleepy’ Biden is warning Benjamin Netanyahu against occupying Gaza.

Joe Biden retweets President Biden about the ongoing ethnic cleansing in Palestine.
Joe Biden retweets President Biden about the ongoing ethnic cleansing in Palestine. Source: X (or Twitter, whatever)

So, investors feel slightly calmer about the Israel-Hamas’s geopolitical spillover to the global economy. Safe havens are down as a result. And riskier assets, on the other hand, are looking better. Bitcoin is one of them.

So, the Bitcoin price’s weekly gain may evaporate if Israel does an Iraq on Palestine. Because it is clearly not a haven investors seek if the geopolitical crisis worsens further. Think gold and the US dollar to take charge.

Holger Zchaepitz's tweet about Bitcoin's price reaction to geopolitical crises
Holger Zchaepitz’s tweet about Bitcoin’s price reaction to geopolitical crises. Source: Twitter (or X/Elon Musk’s Sweetheart)

Key Events This Week

Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in the week ahead for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

China’s GDP figures will be closely watched for signs of slowing growth. The UK will release employment data, and Canada will report inflation numbers. These events carry significant market implications, given they impact local current pricing and, in turn, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis October 2023

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s latest rally may amount to a bearish reversal.

Notably, on Oct.16, BTC’s price retested its prevailing horizontal trendline resistance at around $27,950 and retreated. That signals a lower buying sentiment around the level, increasing Bitcoin’s potential of undergoing a modest rebound to the next available support level.

Bitcoin technical analysis October 2023
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s prevailing ascending trendline near $27,200 could serve as the support. This level has served as a buying area in the past, as shown in the chart above via red-circled accumulation regions.

Conversely, a break above the horizontal trendline resistance could trigger an ascending triangle reversal scenario toward $30,000 in October or early November.

Bitcoin technical analysis 2023
BTC/USD daily price chart ft. ascending triangle reversal setup. Source: TradingView

As a note of caution, Bitcoin’s potential rally toward $30,000 does not mark a bull cycle beginning. Traders have rejected $30,000 multiple times in 2023.

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