Bitcoin Week Ahead Ep37: Watch Out For BTC ETF Deadline, CPI Report

YEREVAN ( — Bitcoin (BTC) looks flat at the beginning of its new weekly session. Traders are awaiting guidance from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on pending Spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Meanwhile, they await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the week ahead, determining its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and, in turn, the overall crypto market.

But before we dwell any further, let’s check last week’s key Bitcoin market events.

Key Bitcoin Market Updates (Nov. 5-12, 2023)

Here is the key Bitcoin market news from the last week, incorporable for fundamental analysis.

BTC Hashprice Hit May 2023 High

Bitcoin’s hashprice, which represents the miner revenue per terahash basis, reached its highest level since May 2023, coinciding with Bitcoin’s boom toward $39,000 and increased inscription activity.

Bitcoin hashprice six-month performance as of November 2023
Bitcoin hashprice six-month performance as of November 2023. Source: Hashrate Index

The hashprice peaked at $0.094 per terrahash per day, a significant increase from the previous week’s $0.072. This rise provided much-needed relief to miners, making mining operations like the S19j Pro, S19k Pro, and S19 XP profitable​.

Bitcoin Miners Dumped Their BTC Holdings

A better hashprice proposition enabled Bitcoin miners to secure profits.

Take CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (BMPI), for instance, which measures the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow. A higher BMPI shows miners send more Bitcoin to circulation than usual, indicating possible selling.

Bitcoin Miners' Position Index chart
Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The BMPI has been rising since October, suggesting they have been selling Bitcoin during the price rise.

Meanwhile, the top thirteen public crypto-mining firms liquidated more Bitcoin than they produced, with their liquidation-to-production ratio coming at 105% in October. The total amount sold was around 5,492 BTC, worth about $164 million.

Key Market Events (Nov. 13-19): Bitcoin ETF and US CPI

The Spot Bitcoin ETF hype has sustained in the days leading up to the SEC’s decision deadline for seven applicants before Nov. 17, 2023. If the decision does not come by then, then Gary Gensler and his regulatory suits will decide on Jan. 10, 2024.

Bitcoin daily price chart analysis
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In the meantime, Bitcoin is trading near its 2023 high of around $39,000. The logic is simple: a spot Bitcoin ETF approval means the BTC price rally above $40,000 to reach $45,000 by the year’s end. Conversely, a delay/rejection could mean a price decline toward $30,000, which I have anticipated in my recent Bitcoin weekly analyses.

On Nov. 14, 0830 EST, the October CPI data will go live. Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast tool predicts the US inflation to increase by 0.07% in the month, a decline from September’s 0.4% reading. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, may rise by 0.34% month-over-month, keeping overall inflation between 3% and 4%​.

Miky Bull's tweet on key Bitcoin macro events
Miky Bull’s tweet on key Bitcoin macro events. Source: X

This could serve as a hawkish indicator to the Federal Reserve. The central bank is currently pausing its rate-hike process, but stagnant core inflation may prompt it to continue raising interest rates at its December meeting — a downside cue for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, easing inflation may prompt traders to buy cryptocurrencies, assuming the Fed will hold rates steady.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Outlook in November 2023

Bitcoin’s daily chart screams “overbought” due to its relative strength index (RSI) reading treading above 70. Technically, an overbought RSI precedes price corrections, but Bitcoin’s solid fundamentals, led by the ETF hype, have calmed selloff fears.

Nonetheless, the rising price coincides with a decline in RSI and trading volumes. That technically shows a growing bearish divergence, indicating BTC’s price may undergo correction in November.

Bitcoin price prediction November 2023
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Suppose it happens. Then, BTC bears’ next downside target appears to be around $36,000, coinciding with its 0.382 Fibonacci line. A continued selloff in the event of pending or rejected Bitcoin ETF applications could crash the price toward the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $32,220.

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