How much can Bitcoin rise ahead of the halving?

YEREVAN ( — Bitcoin (BTC) price dipped early this week following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His comments, which declared that an interest rate cut in March remains off the table, seem to have cast a shadow over investor sentiment. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of over $830 billion, felt the immediate impact, recording a low of $42,276. The announcement comes weeks ahead of the next Bitcoin halving event due in April 2024.

“We’ve said that we want to be more confident that inflation is moving down to (the Fed’s target rate of) 2%. I think it’s not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks,” 

Powell said in an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes.

While his long interview was full of revelations for investors Jerome Powell‘s pessimistic outlook for the US economy has the markets worried. In what came out as a brutally honest analysis, Powell admitted that in the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with the national debt growing faster than the country’s economy. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s interview with Scott Pelley on CBS’s 60 Minutes

Moreover, Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts even before the interest rate hits its 2% target. Deflation is also out of the picture as prices, as per the Chairman, will not fall to pre-Covid levels again. This revelation is sure to worry many who expected relief from the current price surges. 

Why does this matter ahead of the Bitcoin halving event?

With the upcoming Bitcoin halving event less than 90 days away, anticipation and speculation are at an all-time high. Halving events, which cut the reward for mining new blocks in half, generally come as pivotal moments that significantly influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

Historically speaking, these events have led to a temporary dip in Bitcoin’s value within a month post-halving. However, following these initial dips, BTC has rallied to new market tops in the cycle within the subsequent months. 

Going by this pattern, Bitcoin could experience a sharp correction between April and May 2024. However, it will subsequently embark on a journey to its next market peak between April and October 2025. It’s worth noting that post-halving rallies have been substantial, with price surges of 11,000%, 2,850%, and 700% following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 events, respectively.

Bitcoin price will rise ahead of the Bitcoin halving event as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell makes revelation about the US economy.
Kevin Svenson’s tweet about Bitcoin price ahead of inflation and post it. Source: X

In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst Kevin Sven made predictions based on this pattern. According to him, the BTC price could reach the $60,000 mark ahead of the Bitcoin halving event. However, he sees it falling back to the $45,000 mark later, only to rally to the all-time-high level of $68,000. 

Moreover, with Jerome Powell not giving good news, and the US Banking crisis looming, Bitcoin is becoming a viable investing alternative. 

If the traditional markets are going down, so much so that the Federal Reserve is not hiding it, the writing is on the wall. 

3 Critical BTC Predictions Ahead of Bitcoin Halving 

1 Bitcoin price will surpass previous All-Time Highs

recent survey conducted by the crypto trading platform Bitget reveals a strong belief among investors that Bitcoin will not only surpass its 2021 all-time high of approximately $69,000 but could venture into the six-digit territory. Specifically, 41% of investors in Western European countries expect Bitcoin to break the $100,000 mark post-halving. 

Bitcoin price will rise ahead of the Bitcoin halving event as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell makes revelation about the US economy.
TAnalyst’s post showing BTC graph based on historic Bitcoin halving events. Source: X

However, industry insiders, while optimistic, also caution that predicting precise price movements is speculative and expect the bullish trend to unfold gradually​​.

2 The $60,000 to $100,000 Range

The anticipation surrounding Bitcoin’s potential price post-halving spans a wide range. Some bullish analysts expect BTC to land anywhere between $60,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2024. 

Web 3 analyst Reover. Eth sees Bitcoin price at $100,000 post halving
Web 3 analyst Rover. Eth sees Bitcoin price at $100,000 post halving

Such predictions ride on factors such as the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US and macroeconomic conditions that favor alternative investments like Bitcoin. 

The expected shift in monetary policy, particularly by the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, offers for fuel for Bitcoin’s ascent​​. Moreover, the diminishing appeal of the US Dollar is another aspect that could factor in. 

3 A Parabolic Uptrend and the Impact of Market Dynamics

In other news, expert analysis from Rekt Capital suggests a potential parabolic uptrend following the Bitcoin halving. This, according to industry experts, will be driven by a decreased available supply of BTC, which will result in an increased demand. 

Bitcoin price will rise ahead of the Bitcoin halving event as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell makes revelation about the US economy.
Rekt Capital’s analysis of the Bitcoin halving event in April. Source: X

The analysis highlights the historical significance of halving events as major price catalysts and outlines a bullish outlook, reinforced by the expected approval of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. Predictions of Bitcoin reaching or exceeding $100,000 by the end of 2024 reflect a consensus on its long-term growth trajectory, underpinned by both intrinsic and extrinsic market factors​​​​.

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