Key Takeaways:
- SEC could deliver a decision on ARK Invest’s Bitcoin spot ETF today.
- Experts agree that a delay is more likely.
- Will the BTC price respond negatively?
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — The deadline looms for US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to make a decision on a Bitcoin Spot ETF application from ARK Invest, a firm hailed by Cathy Wood. According to the schedule, the decision is expected by Sunday, Aug 13.
Considering the weekend days preceding the deadline, the latter could be moved to Aug 11, by the end of the New York trading session. However, Cathy Wood expected further delay, as a spot Bitcoin ETF has become an eyesore for the regulators, and the SEC closes the public comment period for many of the funds this week.
Furthermore, according to Wood, if the SEC decides to approve any Bitcoin spot ETFs, more than one approval simultaneously is likely. If a delay follows, the third and fourth (final) deadlines stand on Nov 11, 2023, and Jan 10, 2024, respectively.
Meanwhile, the SEC has several applications to review, as seen in the chart above. The filing from investment giant BlackRock created the most buzz, as the firm holds over $9.1 trillion in AUM and has 1 declined ETF on its record, against 575 approvals.
The deadline to answer BlackRock’s plea is up next, on Oct 17, 2023.
Will the delay affect Bitcoin price?
Economist and financial analyst Alex Krüger commented on SEC’s possible delay and called it a “certainty.” He also cited a BTC price cascade in 2018, when the agency delayed its decision on a Bitcoin ETF from Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
If by any chance the SEC approves or rejects the ARK ETF, prices will run and not look back. A trip down memory lane. Here’s what happened when the SEC delayed the “Cboe” ETF on August 2018. Postponment should have been fully priced in and represent NO surprise, yet market tanked.
tweeted Kruger.
The analyst advised his followers, “Do not fade a rejection.” He also recommended taking a “long” position in case of approval and flip short in case of rejection. Meanwhile, a delay could have a similar bearish effect if the past is any indication.
All the Bitcoin ETF decision delays mentioned in the chart below have had a negative effect on the price, including a previous entry from ARK Invest. For example, the NYDIG delay in Jan 2022, Wisdom Tree delay in March, VanEck review delay in August, etc.
Thus, considering the unfavorable macro conditions and the Fed’s likely interest rate hike in September, BTC bulls should be ready for a downturn.
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